Glossary term
Current Employment Statistics (CES)
Current Employment Statistics is the BLS establishment survey that estimates payroll employment, hours, and earnings by industry each month.
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What Is Current Employment Statistics?
Current Employment Statistics (CES) is the Bureau of Labor Statistics establishment survey that estimates monthly payroll employment, hours, and earnings. It is the source of the nonfarm payrolls number in the Employment Situation report.
CES is often called the payroll survey because it collects data from employer payroll records. It counts jobs at establishments, not people in households.
Key Takeaways
- CES is the establishment survey behind nonfarm payrolls.
- It measures payroll jobs, hours, and earnings by industry.
- It differs from the household survey, which measures people and labor-force status.
- Markets watch CES because payroll growth is a major economic signal.
- The data are revised and benchmarked, so early estimates can change.
How CES Works
The survey collects payroll information from a sample of employers. It estimates jobs by industry, average hourly earnings, and average weekly hours. The headline nonfarm payroll number shows the monthly change in jobs on employer payrolls outside certain categories such as farms and private households.
Because it is based on establishments, CES is useful for industry detail. Analysts can see whether job growth is coming from health care, construction, manufacturing, leisure and hospitality, government, professional services, or other sectors.
What It Measures
Measure | Use |
|---|---|
Nonfarm payroll employment | Tracks jobs added or lost at employers. |
Average hourly earnings | Shows payroll wage growth. |
Average weekly hours | Signals labor demand and utilization. |
Industry employment | Shows which sectors are expanding or contracting. |
Revisions and benchmarks | Improve estimates as more data become available. |
CES Versus CPS
CES counts jobs. The Current Population Survey counts people. A worker with two payroll jobs can appear twice in CES but once as employed in CPS. A self-employed worker may appear in CPS but not in payroll employment. That is why payroll growth and household employment can sometimes tell different short-term stories.
CES is usually better for measuring job creation by industry. CPS is usually better for measuring unemployment, participation, and demographic labor-market conditions.
Market Interpretation
Payroll growth is one of the clearest signals of economic momentum. Strong payroll gains can imply rising income and consumer demand. Weak payroll growth can signal slowing business activity. Average hourly earnings and hours worked add information about labor cost pressure and income growth.
Investors should also study revisions. A strong headline number can look less impressive if prior months are revised down. Industry breadth also matters because concentrated hiring can tell a different story from broad-based employment gains.
Industry Breadth
Industry breadth is one of the most useful ways to read CES. If job gains are concentrated in a few defensive areas, the labor market may be less strong than the headline suggests. If hiring is broad across cyclically sensitive industries, the report may signal stronger business confidence.
Hours worked can also lead payroll changes. Employers may cut overtime or shorten workweeks before they cut headcount. That makes average weekly hours a useful early clue about changing labor demand.
CES also helps separate employment from earnings pressure. A month with moderate job growth but strong hourly earnings may tell a different inflation story than a month with fast hiring and flat wages. The combination matters more than any single line item.
The survey also excludes some work arrangements that matter economically. Independent contractors, unpaid family workers, and some agricultural workers are not captured in the same way as payroll jobs. That is another reason to pair CES with CPS and income data.
The Bottom Line
Current Employment Statistics is the payroll survey behind nonfarm payrolls, hours, and earnings. It is central to reading the U.S. labor market, but it should be paired with the household survey and other indicators for a complete picture.